Japón regresa a los ochenta
27.10.2008 @ 11:59 \11\Mon, 27 Oct 2008 11:59:47 +0000\47 +0000 UTC
pero en cuestiones económicas. La bolsa japonesa está en los niveles en los que se encontraba en la era “Pre-Thriller” en 1982
The last time Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average was at today’s level, headbands and legwarmers were in, Steven Spielberg’s E.T. topped box offices, and Michael Jackson’s Thriller was about to be released.
That was 1982, the fifth year of a rally that pushed the Nikkei to nearly 40,000 by the end of 1989 in an asset bubble that purportedly made the land around the Imperial Palace as valuable as all of California. The Nikkei today slumped 6.4 percent to 7,162.90, the lowest since Oct. 7, 1982. That values its members at 8.6 times reported earnings, compared with about 70 times at the 1989 peak.
A tal grado está la crisis que las companías valen más si fueran liquidadas que por lo que venden o por sus ganancias:
Shares on the Topix index, the broadest gauge of Japan’s stock market, trade at 0.89 times book value, the first time the average has been below 1, according to Mizuho Securities Co. That means the companies would be worth more if liquidated.
Y no la tienen fácil para el futuro próximo:
Today, Japan is struggling with weak domestic demand and intensifying global competition for its largest exporters as the economies of Asia caught up. The median age in Japan was 32.5 in 1980; today it’s 43.6, with three elderly for every two children.
Masayuki Kubota, a senior fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo, who helps oversee $1.7 billion, thinks the stock market has echoed its excessive movement of a generation ago, but in the opposite direction this year.
“We’re in a reverse bubble now,” he said. “Large mountains make deep valleys. It’s an old Japanese saying and it’s true for markets as well as economic cycles.”